Conflict determinants in Africa

Authors

  • J. Paul Dunne Department of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town
  • Nan Tian Researcher, Arms Transfers and Military Expenditure Programme, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.21

Keywords:

Civil war, zero-inflation, greed, grievance

Abstract

This article considers the determinants of conflict in Africa. It revisits the greed versus grievance debate to consider the specific regional context and changing nature of conflict in Africa. This is a literature that has grown rapidly in economics and political science, but some recent developments in modeling and conceptualization are providing important new contributions. The article uses the zero-inflated ordered probit technique that deals with the problem of excess zeros in datasets, revisits the definition of conflict, and improves upon some proxy measures. It also considers the substantive as well as statistical significance of the variables. Changes in the technique used provide more support for the influence of grievance terms than given credit for with the usual probit model approach. Both greed and grievance determine conflict in Africa.

References

Bagozzi, B.E., D.W. Hill, W.H. Moore, and B. Mukherjee. 2015. “Modelling Two Types of Peace: The Zero-Inflated Order Probit (ZiOP) Model in Conflict Research.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 59, No. 4, pp. 728–752. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002713520530

Besley, T., and T. Persson, 2010. “State Capacity, Conflict and Development.” Econometrica. Vol. 78, No. 1, pp. 1– 34. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA8073

Besley, T., and T. Persson. 2014. “The Causes and Consequences of Development Clusters: State Capacity, Peace and Income.” Annual Review of Economics. Vol. 6, pp. 927–949. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080213-041128

Blattman, C., and E. Miguel. 2010. “Civil War.” Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.1.3

Boulding, K.E. 1978. Stable Peace. Austin, TX: University of Texas Press.

Brauer, J., and J.P. Dunne. 2012. Peace Economics: A Macroeconomic Primer for Violence-Afflicted States. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace.

Buhaug, H., L.-E. Cederman, and K.S. Gleditsch. 2014. “Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War.” International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 418–431. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12068

Burke, M.B., E. Miguel, S. Satyanath, J.A. Dykema, and D.B. Lobell. 2009. “Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol. 106, No. 49, pp. 20670–20674. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106

Cameron, A.C., and P.K. Trivedi. 2010. Microeconometrics Using Stata. Rev Ed. College Station, TX: Stata Press.

Collier, P., and A. Hoeffler. 2004. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers. Vol. 56, No. 4, pp. 563–595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064

Collier, P., and A. Hoeffler. 2007. “Civil War,” pp. 711-739 in K. Hartley and T. Sander, eds. Handbook of Defense Economics. Vol. 2. Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0013(06)02023-0

Collier, P., V.L. Elliot, H. Hegre, A. Hoeffler, M. Reynal-Querol, and N. Sambanis. 2003. Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1037/e504012013-001

Dunne, J.P., and F. Coulomb. 2008. “Peace, War and International Security: Economic Theories,” pp. 13-26 in J. Fontanel and M. Chatterji, eds. War, Peace and Security. Vol. 6. Bingley, UK: Emerald. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1572-8323(08)06002-5

Dunne, J.P., and N. Tian. 2014. “Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa.” Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy. Vol. 20, No. 4. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0038

Dunne, J.P., and N. Tian. 2017. “Conflict and Fragile States in Africa.” African Development Bank. Working Paper No. 274. https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/document/working-paper-274-conflict-and-fragile-states-in-africa-97150.

Easterly, W., and P. Levine. 1997. “Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 112, No. 4, pp. 1203–1250. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355300555466

Fearon, J.D. 2005. “Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 483–507. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277544

Fearon, J.D., and D.D. Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review. Vol. 97, No. 1, pp. 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534

Fearon, J.D., K. Kasara, and D.D. Laitin. 2007. “Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset.” American Political Science Review. Vol. 101, No. 1, pp. 187–193. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055407070219

Grossman, H.I. 1991. “A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections.” American Economic Review. Vol. 81, No. 4, pp. 912–921.

Hall, D.B. 2000. “Zero-inflated Poisson and Binomial Regression with Random Effects: A Case Study.” Biometrics. Vol. 56, No. 4, pp. 1030–1039. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.01030.x

Harris, M.N., and X. Zhao. 2007. “A Zero-inflated Ordered Probit Model with an Application to Modelling Tobacco Consumption.” Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 141, No. 2, pp. 1073–1099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.01.002

Hegre, H., T. Ellingsen, S. Gates, and N.P. Gleditsch. 2001. “Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992.” American Political Science Review. Vol. 95, No. 1, pp. 33–48.

Hendrix, C.S., and S.M. Glaser. 2007. “Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Political Geography. Vol. 26, pp. 695–715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.006

Hirschleifer, J. 1995. “Theorizing About Conflict,” pp. 165–189 in K. Hartley and T. Sandler, eds. Handbook of Defense Economics. Vol. 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0013(05)80009-2

Lambert, D. 1992. “Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression, with an Application to Defects in Manufacturing.” Technometrics. Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 1–14. https://doi.org/10.2307/1269547

Lujala, P., N.P. Gleditsch, and E. Gilmore. 2005. “A Diamond Curse? Civil War and a Lootable Resource.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 538–562. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277548

Miguel, E., S. Satyanath, and E. Sergenti. 2004. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach.” Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 112, No. 4, pp. 725–753. https://doi.org/10.1086/421174

Pickering, S. 2011. “Determinism in the Mountains: The Ongoing Belief in the Bellicosity of ‘Mountain People’.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 21–25. https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.6.2.21

Ross, M.L. 2013. “Oil and Gas Data, 1932–2011.” Harvard Dataverse, v.2, DOI_1902.1_20369.xml.

Salehyan, I., and K.S. Gleditsch. 2006. “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War.” International Organization. Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 335–366. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103

Sambanis, N. 2002. “A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War.” Defence and Peace Economics. Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 215–243. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690210976

Skaperdas, S. 2008. “An Economic Approach to Analyzing Civil Wars.” Economics of Governance. Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 5–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-007-0043-2

Vance, C., and N. Ritter. 2014. “Is Peace a Missing Value or a Zero? On Selection Models in Political Science.” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 528–540. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343314528200

Ward, M.D., B.D. Greenhill, and K.M. Bakke. 2010. “The Perils of Policy by p-value: Predicting Civil Conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 47, No. 4, pp. 363–375. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309356491

Wucherpfennig, J., N.B. Weidmann, L. Girardin, L.-E. Cederman, and A. Wimmer. 2011. “Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science. Vol. 28, No. 5, pp. 423–437. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210393217

Downloads

Published

2019-10-01

How to Cite

Dunne, J. P., & Tian, N. (2019). Conflict determinants in Africa. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.21

Issue

Section

Articles

Similar Articles

<< < 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.