Taking stocks: Updating our understanding of U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.21.1.17Keywords:
Firearms trafficking, Regulatory enforcement, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs), Illicit markets, U.S.–Mexico security, Crime gun diversion, Compliance inspections, Peace economics, Violence preventionAbstract
Understanding the scale and dynamics of U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking has been hampered by severe restrictions on access to firearm trace data. This article updates empirical knowledge of the illicit cross-border gun trade by assembling and analyzing more than 28,000 firearm records drawn from leaked Mexican government trace data, official Mexican seizure records, and U.S. trafficking court cases. Using capture-recapture techniques, meta-estimation, and econometric analysis, it is estimated that roughly 85,000–135,000 firearms are trafficked from the United States into Mexico annually. There is a positive relationship between trafficking flows and homicide rates in Mexico, evidence of circular causation between police arms purchases and illegal gun seizures, and the continued concentration of trafficking among a small subset of U.S. dealers. Together, these findings refine prevailing estimates of trafficking volumes and illuminate the feedback mechanisms linking legal gun markets, illicit flows, and violence.
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