Conflict determinants in Africa


  • J. Paul Dunne Department of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town
  • Nan Tian Researcher, Arms Transfers and Military Expenditure Programme, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden



Civil war, zero-inflation, greed, grievance


This article considers the determinants of conflict in Africa. It revisits the greed versus grievance debate to consider the specific regional context and changing nature of conflict in Africa. This is a literature that has grown rapidly in economics and political science, but some recent developments in modeling and conceptualization are providing important new contributions. The article uses the zero-inflated ordered probit technique that deals with the problem of excess zeros in datasets, revisits the definition of conflict, and improves upon some proxy measures. It also considers the substantive as well as statistical significance of the variables. Changes in the technique used provide more support for the influence of grievance terms than given credit for with the usual probit model approach. Both greed and grievance determine conflict in Africa.


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How to Cite

Dunne, J. P., & Tian, N. (2019). Conflict determinants in Africa. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 14(2).




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