Macroeconomic benefits of farmer-pastoralist peace in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: An input-output analysis approach

Authors

  • Topher McDougal University of San Diego
  • Talia Hagerty Institute for Economics and Peace
  • Lisa Inks Mercy Corps
  • Caitriona Dowd Mercy Corps
  • Stone Conroy Mercy Corps

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.1.66

Keywords:

Peace dividend, benefits of peace, input-output analysis

Abstract

This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing that the sectors that stand to gain most from peace are the crop production, food and beverage, livestock, and chemical and petroleum industries. [JEL codes: C65, D74, E01]

Author Biographies

Topher McDougal, University of San Diego

Topher McDougal is Assistant Professor in Economic Development & Peacebuilding at the Kroc School of Peace Studies at the University of San Diego.

Lisa Inks, Mercy Corps

Lisa Inks is Director of Conflict Management Programs with Mercy Corps Nigeria.

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Published

2015-04-01

How to Cite

McDougal, T., Hagerty, T., Inks, L., Dowd, C., & Conroy, S. (2015). Macroeconomic benefits of farmer-pastoralist peace in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: An input-output analysis approach. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.1.66

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