The onset of peace

Ron Smith, Ali Tasiran


Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's Conflict Termination Dataset, 1946-2007, we investigate determinants of war duration: How long does war last before the onset of peace? We provide an exposition of the nature of the data and of the transformations statistical issues involved in quantifying the dynamics of conflict, in particular the onset of peace. Various duration models are used to analyze the length of wars that ended with victory and peace or cease fires or show low activity. Multispell Cox proportional hazards models and single-spell log-logistic hazard models suggest that major wars are of shorter duration than minor wars, internal wars last longer than wars between states, and peace comes quicker in Europe than in other regions. We find only small differences in the determinants of terminated wars and wars with low activities or no activities.


Peace; war; duration; onset

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