The Effect of Farmer-Pastoralist Violence on Income: New Survey Evidence from Nigeria’s Middle Belt States

Authors

  • Topher L. McDougal University of San Diego
  • Talia Hagerty Institute for Economics and Peace
  • Lisa Inks Mercy Corps
  • Claire-Lorentz Ugo-Ike Mercy Corps
  • Caitriona Dowd Mercy Corps
  • Stone Conroy Mercy Corps
  • Daniel Ogabiela Mercy Corps

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.1.54

Keywords:

Farmer-pastoralist violence, cost of conflict, survey, instrumental variables, negative binomial model

Abstract

This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in the study area. This is high when compared to the costs of conflict measured in other studies, even as our study takes account only of microeconomic costs. After incorporating an estimate of the size of the informal economy, the microeconomic cost of farmer-pastoralist conflict to the total economy is approximately 2.9 percent. [JEL codes: C36, D74, J17]

Author Biographies

Topher L. McDougal, University of San Diego

Topher McDougal is Assistant Professor in Economic Development & Peacebuilding at the Kroc School of Peace Studies at the University of San Diego.

Talia Hagerty, Institute for Economics and Peace

Talia Hagerty is a Researcher at the Institute for Economics and Peace in Sydney, Australia.

Lisa Inks, Mercy Corps

Lisa Inks is Director of Conflict Management Programs at Mercy Corps Nigeria.

Daniel Ogabiela, Mercy Corps

Daniel Ogabiela is Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Officer with Mercy Corps Nigeria.

References

Aghedo, I. and O. Osumah. 2012. “The Boko Haram Uprising: how should Nigeria respond?” Third World Quarterly. Vol. 33, No. 5, pp.853-869. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2012.674701

André, C. and J.-P. Plateau. 1998. “Land Relations under Unbearable Stress: Rwanda Caught in the Malthusian Trap.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 1-47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00045-0

Benjaminsen, T.A., K. Alinon, H. Buhaug, and J.T. Buseth. 2012. “Does Climate Change Drive Land-Use Conflicts in the Sahel?” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 97-111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427343

Blench, R. 2010. “Conflict Between Pastoralists and Cultivators in Nigeria.” Review paper for Department for International Development, UK. www.rogerblench.info/.../Nigeria/Pastoralism/Fadama%20II%20paper.pdf [accessed 20 March 2015].

Doidge, J.C., L. Segal, an E. Gospodarevskaya. 2012. “Attributable Risk Analysis Reveals Potential Healthcare Savings from Increased Consumption of Dairy Products.” The Journal of Nutrition: Methodology and Mathematical Modeling. Vol. 142, pp. 1772-1780. http://dx.doi.org/10.3945/jn.111.154161

Greenland, S. and K. Drescher. 1993. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Attributable Fraction from Logistic Models.” Biometrics. Vol. 49, pp. 865-872. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2532206

Gupte, J., P. Justino, and J.-P. Tranchant. 2014. “Households Amidst Urban Riots: The Economic Consequences of Civil Violence in India.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 58, No. 8, pp. 1445-1473. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002714547886

Hazen, J.M. and J. Horner. 2007. “Small Arms, Armed Violence, and Insecurity in Nigeria: The Niger Delta in Perspective.” Occasional Paper No. 20. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.

Hegre, H., G. Østby, and C. Raleigh. 2009. “Poverty and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 53, No. 4, pp. 598-623. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002709336459

Hendrix, C.S. and S.M. Glaser. 2007. “Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Political Geography. Vol. 26, No. 6, pp. 695-715. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.006

Higazi, A. 2013. “Rural Insecurity on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria: Livelihoods, Land, and Religious Reform among the Berom, Fulani, and Hausa.” Oxford: Nigeria Research Network.

Hunt, J.T. 2006. The Politics of Bones: Dr. Owens Wiwa and the Struggle for Nigeria’s Oil. Toronto: McClelland & Stewart.

Jones-Casey, K. and A. Knox. 2011. “Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Mali.” Focus on Land in Africa. World Resources Institute and LandesaRural Development Institute. www.focusonland.com/download/51dda6a62a68d/ [accessed 15 March 2015].

Justino, P., T. Brück, and P. Verwimp, eds. 2013. A Micro-Level Perspective on the Dynamics of Conflict, Violence, and Development. New York: Oxford University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199664597.001.0001

Last, J.M., ed. 2001. A Dictionary of Epidemiology. 4th ed. New York: Oxford University Press.

Lindgren, G. 2005. “The Economic Costs of Civil Wars.” Paper presented at the 9th Annual International Conference on Economics and Security, Bristol, UK. http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2005/Papers/Lindgren.pdf [accessed 15 March 2015].

Maystadt, J.-F., G. De Luca, P.G. Sekeris, and J. Ulimwengu. 2014. “Mineral Resources and Conflicts in DRC: A Case of Ecological Fallacy?” Oxford Economic Papers. Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 721-749. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpt037

McDougal, T.L. 2011. “Insurgent Violence and the Rural-Urban Divide: The Case of Maoist India,” pp. 69-98 in R. Caruso, ed. Ethnic Conflicts, Civil War, and Cost of Conflict. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/S1572-8323(2011)0000017008

McDougal, T.L., T. Hagerty, L. Inks, C. Dowd, and S. Conroy. 2015. “Macroeconomic Benefits of Farmer-Pastoralist Peace in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: An Input-Output Analysis Approach.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 66-77. http://dx.doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.1.66

Mohammed, A.S. Undated. “The Impacts of Conflict on the Economy: The Case of Plateau State of Nigeria.” London: Overseas Development Institute.

Nigeria National Population Commission. 2006. “2006 Population and Housing Census: Priority Table III: Population Distribution by Sex, State, LGA & Senatorial District.” Abuja, Nigeria.

Nigeria National Population Commission. 2013. “Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey Preliminary Report,” in Measures DHS, ed. DHS Preliminary Reports. Calverton, MD: ICF International.

Obi, C.I. 2010. “Oil Extraction, Dispossession, Resistance, and Conflict in Nigeria’s Oil-Rich Niger Delta.” Canadian Journal of Development Studies. Vol. 30, Nos. 1-2, pp. 219-236. http://dx.doi:10.1080/02255189.2010.9669289

Odoh, S.I. and C.F. Chigozie. 2012. “Climate Change and Conflict in Nigeria: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination of the Worsening Incidence of Conflict between Fulani Herdsmen and Farmers in Northern Nigeria.” Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review. Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 110-124.

Ogbuabor, J.E. and V.A. Malaolu. 2013. “Size and Causes of the Informal Sector of the Nigerian Economy: Evidence From Error Correction Mimic Model.” Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 85-103.

Onuoha, F.C. 2010. “The Islamist Challenge: Nigeria’s Boko Haram Crisis Explained.” African Security Review. Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 54-67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10246029.2010.503061

Sayne, A. 2011. “Climate Change Adaptation and Conflict in Nigeria.” Special Reports. Vol. 274. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace.

Sulaiman, A., M.R. Jàafar-Furo, M. Nasiru, U. Haruna, and J.E. Ochi. 2011. “Farmers Socio-economic Factors Influencing Resource Use Conflicts in a Typical Fadama Area in Nigeria: A Focus on Bauchi State.” Trends in Agricultural Economics. Vol. 4, pp. 58-64. http://dx.doi:10.3923/tae.2011.58.64

Tollefsen, A.F. 2012. “Disaggregating the Conflict Trap: A Spatial Analytical Approach.” Paper presented at the 12th Annual Jan Tinbergen Eurpoean Peace Science Conference. Berlin, Germany.

Watts, M. 2007. “Petro-Insurgency or Criminal Syndicate? Conflict and Violence in the Niger Delta.” Review of African Political Economy. Vol. 34, No. 114, pp. 637-660. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03056240701819517

World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

World Bank. (2014). World Development Indicators. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

Downloads

Published

2015-04-01

How to Cite

McDougal, T. L., Hagerty, T., Inks, L., Ugo-Ike, C.-L., Dowd, C., Conroy, S., & Ogabiela, D. (2015). The Effect of Farmer-Pastoralist Violence on Income: New Survey Evidence from Nigeria’s Middle Belt States. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.1.54

Issue

Section

Articles

Similar Articles

<< < 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.