Economists for Peace and Security

The Economics of Peace and Security Journal

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A publication by Economists for Peace and Security

Friedman's First Law fail: oil prices do not predict freedom
TOWNSEND, Steve

Vol 4, No 1 - Symposia on Defense innovation | Conflict theory and micro-level analysis, January 2009

Thomas Friedman’s First Law of Petropolitics has acquired wide circulation and acceptance without being subjected to proper scrutiny. His claim that, in oil-rich, less-developed countries, there is an inverse correlation between the price of oil and the level of freedom is false. Friedman provides data for four countries to illustrate his thesis. This article shows his figures are incomplete, inappropriate, or misinterpreted. He specifies nine more countries that will conform to his prediction but when investigated, these, more often than not, also disprove his claim. [Keywords: democracy, democratization, petropolitics, resource curse. JEL code: Q34]

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